Tuesday, August 9, 2011

SA Stockbrokers Comparisons

Below is a chart of stockbrokers' comparisons I have compiled. Note that the list of stockbrokers is not exhaustive, and my comparison focuses more on fees and products. It is not comprehensive in any way.


Standard Bank Online Share Trading probably offers the best comprehensive services for investors and traders.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Sell in May and go away

There is an old market adage of "Sell in May and go away". There is statistical evidence backing this, see the following two articles:

Sell in May and go away : Obstacle or opportunity?

A Google search on "Sell in May" revealed an astounding 1,450 million items. If you add 2011 to the search phrase the number of items dropped slightly to 957 million. A similar search on "Buy Low, Sell High" revealed only 172 million items. No search on other legendary axioms could come close to the number of items revealed by the search on "Sell in May".


This popular phrase is based on long-term statistics indicating that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year - "good" periods, while the "bad" periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.

Sell-in-may-and-go-away-stock-strategists-not-so-sure

Anyone who’s been investing for a while has probably heard the homily “Sell in May and go away.” It’s a lilting reminder that the worst time of the year for stocks is usually the summer and the early fall. Going back decades, most of the money made in the stock market is made from November through April.


Some reasons behind this theory: People tend to feed their retirement accounts and invest bonuses early in the year. They go on vacation and ignore the market over the summer. Traders come back in September and dump companies that aren’t performing according to expectations.

Jeffrey Hirsch, publisher of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, offers some pretty persuasive numbers to support the argument. If you put $10,000 into the market on November 1, 1972, and spent 37 years selling all of your holdings on April 30 and rebuying on November 1, you’d have more than $160,000 today. You would have earned an average annual return of 7.4 percent, according to Hirsch’s data. If you’d taken that same $10,000 and, starting in 1972, done the reverse, investing every May 1 and selling every October 31, you’d have $7,863 and an average annual return of 0.4 percent.

****
It looks like this year is going to prove this old adage true again, with the Wall Street heading for the seventh straight down week, and our own JSE having losing steam over the past two months. But then this presents a better buying opportunities for investors in the next few months to come.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Sasol looks ominous

The recent chart Sasol looks like Sasol share price is on a slippery slope down. The 3-year chart first. It shows that after it has broken out of a symmetrical triangle, it has reached the target.


But the recent chart looks like a head and shoulders pattern forming. If it does break down the support at R350, it can go down to R310.


I would say cash is king!

Monday, May 30, 2011

The future of the Rand

The Rand has been trading sideways against the US Dollar since August 2010, between 7.30 and 6.50. It looks like the Rand is unlikely to break the R6.50 mark, and can trade in this range for some time.

Gold price set to run to R15,000 per ounce

The charts below shows the trend of Rand gold price over last 5 years - up and up.


An exciting development is the Rand gold price has reached new highs, now close to R10,500 per ounce. See below the 3-year chart.


The Rand Gold price looks set to reach R15,000 in the next couple of years. A very good investment in my book.

The ALSI looking to trend down

It's been a while since I last analysed the ALSI chart. The recent chart shows ALSI has been trending down since Feb 2011, with lower highs.


If it breaks down the support level of 30,000, it can go down to about 27,500. I think a market correction in the next few months is likely, and will look to re-enter the market at that time.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Best unit trust funds in SA

January 27 2011 at 10:00am

Source: IOL Best unit trust funds in SA 2011

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Raging Bull Awards 2011, which recognised the country’s top-performing unit trust funds for 2010, took place at The Wanderers Club in Johannesburg last night. And the winners are ...

AWARD WINNERS

TOP MANAGEMENT COMPANIES OF THE YEAR

The unit trust management companies with the most impressive and most consistent overall performance across their suites of funds, taking into account all factors (performance, risk management and consistency).

Methodology: The award is based on the highest average PlexCrown rating for the suite of funds managed by each management company. Passive funds and funds in non-ranked sectors (for example, varied specialist sectors) are not taken into account.

Domestic Management Company of the Year: ALLAN GRAY

The South African-domiciled management company with the best overall performance across unit trust sectors that consist of a suite of five or more rand-denominated funds with at least three years’ history.

Certificate for Second-best Domestic Management Company: NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS

Certificate for Third-best Domestic Management Company: PRUDENTIAL

Offshore Management Company of the Year: INVESTEC

The overseas-domiciled management company with the best overall performance across unit trust sectors that consist of a suite of five or more non-rand-denominated funds with at least three years’ history.

TOP OUTRIGHT PERFORMERS

The top performers to December 2010 on a straight performance basis in asset- and sector-specific Asisa categories (including the main asset allocation sectors).

Methodology: Funds are ranked on a three-year lump sum NAV to NAV basis (in other words, entry costs are not taken into account), with income distributions reinvested at the ex-dividend date). Calculations by ProfileData.

Best Broad-based Domestic Equity Fund: MARRIOTT DIVIDEND GROWTH FUND

The fund with the highest ProfileData total investment return ranking over three years in the Asisa domestic equity general, value and growth sectors.

Best Domestic Fixed-Interest Fund: NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS BOND FUND (A class)

The fund with the highest ProfileData total investment return ranking over three years in the Asisa domestic fixed-interest bond and income sectors.

Best Foreign (South African-domiciled) Equity Fund: ALLAN GRAY-ORBIS GLOBAL EQUITY FEEDER FUND

The fund with the highest ProfileData total investment return ranking over three years in the Asisa foreign equity general sector.

Best Offshore Global Equity Fund: RE:CM GLOBAL FUND

The fund with the highest ProfileData total investment return ranking over three years in ProfileData’s offshore global equity general sector.

TOP RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMERS

Top performers to December 2010 on a risk-adjusted basis in the asset allocation and real estate sectors, plus the largest other Asisa unit trust sectors based on market capitalisation. The PlexCrown system, which incorporates risk-adjusted returns and consistency of performance, is used to rank funds for these awards.

Methodology: The PlexCrown system combines risk-adjusted returns based on performance statistics from ProfileData with standard risk measures, consistency measures, and measures of downside risk and managerial skill. Performance over five- and three-year periods is taken into account.

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Flexible Fund: PSG FLEXIBLE FUND

The fund with the highest PlexCrown rating over five years in the Asisa domestic asset allocation flexible sector.

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Prudential Fund: DOTPORT STABLE PRUDENTIAL FUND OF FUNDS

The fund with the highest PlexCrown rating over five years in the Asisa domestic asset allocation prudential high equity, medium equity, low equity and variable equity sectors.

Best Domestic General Equity Fund: ABSA SELECT EQUITY FUND

The fund with the highest PlexCrown rating over five years in the Asisa domestic equity general sector.

Best Offshore Global Asset Allocation Fund: ASHBURTON REPLICA EURO ASSET MANAGEMENT FUND

The fund with the highest PlexCrown rating in ProfileData’s offshore global asset allocation flexible and prudential sectors.

CERTIFICATE WINNERS

TOP OUTRIGHT PERFORMERS OVER THREE YEARS

DOMESTIC FUNDS

Best Domestic Equity General Fund: MARRIOTT DIVIDEND GROWTH FUND

Best Domestic Equity Growth Fund: RMB STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND (A class)

Best Domestic Equity Industrial Fund: CORONATION INDUSTRIAL FUND

Best Domestic Equity Financial Fund: CORONATION FINANCIAL FUND

Best Domestic Equity Resources and Basic Industries Fund: OLD MUTUAL MINING AND RESOURCES FUND (A class)

Best Domestic Equity Smaller Companies Fund: RMB SMALL MID-CAP FUND

Best Domestic Equity Value Fund: NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS VALUE FUND (A class)

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Flexible Fund: PSG FLEXIBLE FUND

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Prudential Fund: CORONATION BALANCED DEFENSIVE FUND
(Includes the prudential high equity, medium equity, low equity and variable equity sectors)

Best Domestic Fixed-Interest Bond Fund: NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS BOND FUND

Best Domestic Fixed-Interest Income Fund: STANLIB INCOME FUND

Best Domestic Real Estate Fund: DISCOVERY FLEXIBLE PROPERTY FUND

FOREIGN FUNDS

Best Foreign Fixed-Interest Bond Fund: CORIS CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL BOND FEEDER FUND

Best Offshore Europe Equity General Fund: FRANKLIN EUROPEAN GROWTH FUND

Best Offshore Far East Equity General Fund: ORBIS SICAV ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY FUND

Best Offshore USA Equity General Fund: FRANKLIN US OPPORTUNITIES FUND

Best Offshore Global Fixed-Interest Bond Fund: INVESTEC GSF GLOBAL BOND FUND

TOP RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMERS OVER FIVE YEARS

DOMESTIC FUNDS

Best Worldwide Asset Allocation Flexible Fund: FLAGSHIP IP WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE FUND OF FUNDS

Best Foreign Asset Allocation Flexible Fund: ALLAN GRAY-ORBIS GLOBAL FUND OF FUNDS

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Prudential Medium Equity Fund: ABSA BALANCED FUND (A class)

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Prudential Low Equity Fund: METROPOLITAN ODYSSEY CONSERVATIVE FUND OF FUNDS

Best Domestic Asset Allocation Prudential Variable Equity Fund: DOTPORT STABLE PRUDENTIAL FUND OF FUNDS

Best Domestic Fixed-Interest Bond Fund: NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS BOND FUND (A class)

Best Foreign Equity General Fund: ALLAN GRAY-ORBIS GLOBAL EQUITY FEEDER FUND

Best Real Estate Fund: STANLIB PROPERTY INCOME FUND

(The fund with the highest PlexCrown rating over five years in the Asisa domestic real estate general sector)

FOREIGN FUNDS

Best Offshore Global Fixed-Interest Bond Fund: INVESTEC GSF GLOBAL BOND FUND

Best Offshore Global Equity Fund: FRANKLIN GLOBAL SMALL-MID CAP GROWTH FUND

Source: ProfileData

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Rand Gold Price set to run

I have just analysed the rand gold price chart for the last five years. It has been on an upward trend, and more significantly, it has been trading in a rising wedge, and close to the end of it, with signs of breaking out. A longer-term target of probably around R150 if trading NewGold ETF.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Allan Gray again tops the PlexCrown survey

According to the latest PlexCrown survey for the quarter 31 December 2010, Allan Gray is again the 1st ranked domestic CIS Manager, with a rating of 4.625. This is despite its relative poor performance in 2010.

The PlexCrown Survey measures the fund managers' long-term performance in terms of consistency and risks taken.

The PlexCrown domestic CIS manager ranking - overall is as follows:

CIS MANAGER Weighted Average Rank

Allan Gray              4.625                     1
Nedgroup Investments 3.875                2
Prudential                3.792                    3
Coronation              3.458                    4
Oasis                      3.292                     5
Investment Solutions 3.250                   6
RMB                      3.242                     7
Old Mutual             3.075                     8
STANLIB              2.972                     9
Investec                  2.902                   10
STANLIB MultiM  2.500                   11
Absa                       2.150                  12

For more, visit http://www.plexcrown.co.za/.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Our yearly model portfolio for 2011

As is our custom, we publish our yearly model portfolio for 2011. This is the first time we introduce foreign companies into the portfolio, as these two tech giants, Apple and Samsung, offer growth opportunities and cannot be ignored. The share price is in South African Rand (ZAR), in cents.

Name Weighting Share price
Apple 6% 214033.72
Ellies 10% 220
Grindrod 10% 1895
Metorex 8% 524
Pinnacle 10% 683
Samsung 8% 557637.18
Sasol 10% 34628
South Ocean 10% 235
Steinhoff 8% 2450
Value 8% 390
WBHO 6% 13900
Wescoal 6% 120