Thursday, January 5, 2012

Why Telkom is Eishkom

Two days ago I asked my PA to contact Telkom to cancel my residential ADSL service. After holding on for more than one hour, she eventually spoke to a consultant and transferred the call to me.

This is after I held on for more than half an hour to try to get to a consultant for the same purpose.

No wonder many customers complain about Telkom, about their poor service.

From an investment perspective, how can investors have confidence in a company that provides poor customer service?

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

SA Stockbrokers Comparisons

Below is a chart of stockbrokers' comparisons I have compiled. Note that the list of stockbrokers is not exhaustive, and my comparison focuses more on fees and products. It is not comprehensive in any way.


Standard Bank Online Share Trading probably offers the best comprehensive services for investors and traders.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Sell in May and go away

There is an old market adage of "Sell in May and go away". There is statistical evidence backing this, see the following two articles:

Sell in May and go away : Obstacle or opportunity?

A Google search on "Sell in May" revealed an astounding 1,450 million items. If you add 2011 to the search phrase the number of items dropped slightly to 957 million. A similar search on "Buy Low, Sell High" revealed only 172 million items. No search on other legendary axioms could come close to the number of items revealed by the search on "Sell in May".


This popular phrase is based on long-term statistics indicating that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year - "good" periods, while the "bad" periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.

Sell-in-may-and-go-away-stock-strategists-not-so-sure

Anyone who’s been investing for a while has probably heard the homily “Sell in May and go away.” It’s a lilting reminder that the worst time of the year for stocks is usually the summer and the early fall. Going back decades, most of the money made in the stock market is made from November through April.


Some reasons behind this theory: People tend to feed their retirement accounts and invest bonuses early in the year. They go on vacation and ignore the market over the summer. Traders come back in September and dump companies that aren’t performing according to expectations.

Jeffrey Hirsch, publisher of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, offers some pretty persuasive numbers to support the argument. If you put $10,000 into the market on November 1, 1972, and spent 37 years selling all of your holdings on April 30 and rebuying on November 1, you’d have more than $160,000 today. You would have earned an average annual return of 7.4 percent, according to Hirsch’s data. If you’d taken that same $10,000 and, starting in 1972, done the reverse, investing every May 1 and selling every October 31, you’d have $7,863 and an average annual return of 0.4 percent.

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It looks like this year is going to prove this old adage true again, with the Wall Street heading for the seventh straight down week, and our own JSE having losing steam over the past two months. But then this presents a better buying opportunities for investors in the next few months to come.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Sasol looks ominous

The recent chart Sasol looks like Sasol share price is on a slippery slope down. The 3-year chart first. It shows that after it has broken out of a symmetrical triangle, it has reached the target.


But the recent chart looks like a head and shoulders pattern forming. If it does break down the support at R350, it can go down to R310.


I would say cash is king!

Monday, May 30, 2011

The future of the Rand

The Rand has been trading sideways against the US Dollar since August 2010, between 7.30 and 6.50. It looks like the Rand is unlikely to break the R6.50 mark, and can trade in this range for some time.

Gold price set to run to R15,000 per ounce

The charts below shows the trend of Rand gold price over last 5 years - up and up.


An exciting development is the Rand gold price has reached new highs, now close to R10,500 per ounce. See below the 3-year chart.


The Rand Gold price looks set to reach R15,000 in the next couple of years. A very good investment in my book.

The ALSI looking to trend down

It's been a while since I last analysed the ALSI chart. The recent chart shows ALSI has been trending down since Feb 2011, with lower highs.


If it breaks down the support level of 30,000, it can go down to about 27,500. I think a market correction in the next few months is likely, and will look to re-enter the market at that time.